Tuesday, February 3, 2009

The financial crisis has triggered a larger than expected fall in world trade growth according to the WTO; Global trade which had grown 8.5% in 2006, slowed to 5.5% in 2007 and is estimated to be down to 4.0% in 2008. Growth in dollar terms exceeded 20% in the first half of 2008, started contracting in the third quarter and turned negative in November. Currency valuations and commodity price rises inflated growth in value terms in the first half, and also accentuated the decline in the second half of 2008.

www.ecofin-surge.co.in

1 comment:

jalamgir said...

Mr. Sarkar-Bose, What is the government forecasting for 2009? FDI has been declining steadily, and along with it, the political risk of doing business in India has also increased by some estimates.

This second issue will be quite important as elections draw near. Discontent with India's path to globalization has been rising, and with inflation up in 2009, the political management of India's economy will prove crucial to stability. I speak at length about this risk in the last chapter of my book, India's Open-Economy Policy (London and New York: Routledge, 2009). Would be interested in your forecast/comments for 2009...

Jalal Alamgir, Ph.D.
Red Bridge Strategy
http://www.redbridgestrategy.com/
Blog at http://localandglobal.wordpress.com/